The impact of a cliff-edge Brexit on U.K growth would be at least 10 times bigger than that felt by Germany, France or Italy, according to Oxford Economics.
If negotiations between Britain and the European Union collapse, the nation would face a “significant increase in trade disruption” from March 2019 that would pull down GDP by 16 billion pounds ($21 billion) in cash terms by 2020, it said in a report Wednesday.
That equates to a 2 percentage-point hit to growth over the period, far outstripping the impact on other European nations, Oxford said. Ireland would see a 1 percentage-point drop by 2020, while the effect on other countries would be far smaller.
The risks to the U.K. forecast “are skewed to the downside,” Oxford economists James Nixon and Andrew Goodwin wrote. “A slump in confidence or failure to establish the necessary customs infrastructure in time could easily generate a worse outcome.”
The projections may anger pro-Brexit groups who criticized economists and international organizations for being too pessimistic before last year’s referendum on EU membership.